Bonds & Treasury Yields — CapitalSignal

US Treasury Yield Curve

2yr–10yr Spread

+0.24%

Key recession indicator. Negative = inverted curve = recession warning.

Normal — Un-inverted

3mo–10yr Spread

+0.14%

Fed's preferred recession indicator. Was deeply inverted in 2023.

Normalizing

Real Yield (10yr)

+1.92%

10yr yield minus inflation. Positive real yields pressure growth stocks.

Elevated

TIPS Breakeven (10yr)

2.50%

Market's inflation expectation over 10 years. Fed target is 2%.

Above Target

Credit Spread (IG)

+0.95%

Investment grade corporate bond premium over Treasuries.

Tight — Risk-On

High Yield Spread

+3.20%

Junk bond premium over Treasuries. Rising = credit stress.

Compressed

Country	2yr Yield	10yr Yield	30yr Yield	Central Bank Rate	Trend
🇺🇸United States	4.18%	4.42%	4.62%	4.25–4.50%	▼ Easing
🇩🇪Germany (Bund)	2.08%	2.38%	2.68%	3.15%	▼ Easing
🇬🇧United Kingdom	4.24%	4.58%	5.12%	4.75%	▼ Easing
🇯🇵Japan (JGB)	0.62%	1.08%	2.28%	0.25%	▲ Tightening
🇨🇳China	1.42%	1.68%	1.98%	3.10%	▼ Easing
🇦🇺Australia	3.88%	4.42%	4.88%	4.35%	▼ Easing
🇨🇦Canada	2.98%	3.28%	3.48%	3.25%	▼ Easing
🇮🇳India	6.62%	6.78%	7.02%	6.50%	▼ Easing