Inflation & Prices
CPI Inflation (YoY)
2.9%
▲ vs 2.7% prior
Consumer Price Index — Jan 2025
Above Fed TargetCore CPI (ex Food/Energy)
3.2%
▲ vs 3.2% prior
Stickier measure watched by the Fed
StickyPCE Inflation
2.5%
→ vs 2.4% prior
Fed's preferred inflation gauge
Near TargetPPI (Producer Prices)
3.3%
▲ vs 3.0% prior
Wholesale inflation — leading indicator
RisingLabor Market
Unemployment Rate
4.1%
▼ vs 4.2% prior
Jan 2025 — Near historic lows
StrongNon-Farm Payrolls
256K
▲ vs 212K est.
Jobs added in December 2024
BeatJobless Claims (Weekly)
217K
→ vs 220K prior
Initial unemployment filings
HealthyAvg Hourly Earnings
+4.1%
▲ vs 4.0% prior
YoY wage growth — inflationary
ElevatedGrowth & Output
GDP Growth (Q3 2024)
3.1%
▲ vs 2.8% prior
Annualized real GDP growth rate
StrongISM Manufacturing
49.3
▼ Below 50 = contraction
Factory activity index
ContractingISM Services
54.1
▲ Above 50 = expansion
Service sector activity
ExpandingRetail Sales (MoM)
+0.4%
▲ vs -0.1% prior
Consumer spending at retail stores
ResilientMoney & Credit
Fed Funds Rate
4.25–4.50%
▼ Cut 100bps in 2024
Current target range
RestrictiveM2 Money Supply
$21.4T
▲ +3.8% YoY
Broad money supply measure
GrowingCredit Card Delinquency
3.2%
▲ vs 2.6% year ago
% of balances 90+ days past due
RisingConsumer Confidence
104.7
▼ vs 109.7 prior
Conference Board Index
Softening📈 Yield Curve
2yr–10yr Spread+0.24%
Curve StatusNormal (Un-inverted)
SignalRecession risk reduced
CNN Fear & Greed Index
28
Fear
Extreme FearGreed
Market MomentumFear
VIX Level18.4
Put/Call Ratio1.12 (Bearish)
Fed Watch
Next FOMC Meeting
Jan 28–29
→ Hold expected
Market pricing 85% chance of no change
HoldRate Cuts Expected 2025
1–2
Down from 4 expected
Fed dot plot median projection
Fewer CutsNeutral Rate Estimate
2.5–3.0%
→ Unchanged
Long-run Fed funds rate target
SteadyQT Pace
$60B/mo
Balance sheet reduction
Fed reducing its $7T+ balance sheet
Tightening