Economic Cycle Clock
Different sectors outperform at different stages of the economic cycle. The market typically rotates through these phases over a 5–7 year period. We are currently in Late Cycle / Early Slowdown.
Phase 1
Early Recovery
Financials · Industrials · Consumer Disc.
→
Phase 2
Mid Expansion
Technology · Comm. Services · Materials
→
Phase 3 ← WE ARE HERE
Late Cycle
Energy · Materials · Healthcare · Staples
→
Phase 4
Recession
Utilities · Staples · Healthcare · Gold
💡 Current Signal: Strong labor market, sticky inflation, slowing manufacturing — classic late-cycle indicators. Smart money is rotating toward defensive sectors (Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Utilities) and hard assets (Energy, Gold). Technology still has AI tailwinds but faces multiple compression risk if rates stay higher for longer.
| Rank | Sector | ETF | Performance | vs S&P 500 | Signal | Cycle Phase |
|---|